Showing posts with label estimation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label estimation. Show all posts

Friday, July 2, 2010

Project Planning SP 1.2 - Task Attribute: Effort or Size?

Is it possible to establish estimates of work product and task attributes by means of task time estimates? Can the task effort be similar to the size of a task?

By going directly to task time estimates you have effectively skipped performing Project Planning Specific Practice 1.2. The intent of SP 1.2 is for you to perform some sort of basis of estimate for the project’s tasks and activities. This is a bottom-up approach. If you are not used to this approach, it can be a struggle at first to take a step backwards from task time estimates and really understand the underlying assumptions that people are making in their heads about the factors that are driving the task time estimates. Some very basic task attributes include estimating the number of pages in a document that is being produced or updated, the number of technical drawings being produced or updated for a hardware item, the number of new or modified interfaces, the number of new or modified screens , etc. Then based on your historical data from previous projects, it is possible for you to empirically determine a set of productivity factors that will convert these sizing parameters into effort and arrive at the task time estimates. The bottom line is effort of a task is not the same as the size of a task.

Do you think this practice would be Fully, Largely, Partially or Not Implemented? Would this be this a problem in a SCAMPI A appraisal? What do you think about that?

Taking this example out of context with everything else your organization is doing makes this a difficult question to answer. The appraisal team is the only group that would be qualified to make that judgment based on documented evidence and the interviews. However, as a Lead Appraiser, I would have to say that you have a problem that needs to be addressed before you conduct a SCAMPI. The SCAMPI rules state that if a Process Area is in the scope of the appraisal, then all of its Specific and Generic practices are applicable. And if you are not performing a practice, which may or may not be the case, then there could be issues in Project Planning that impact Goal Satisfaction and result in a Maturity Level 1 rating.

To provide you the best answer, you should be talking to your Lead Appraiser and have him or her give you the proper guidance on this issue. As a risk mitigation, I would recommend that you put a process in place to estimate sizing parameters that are then used to calculate effort. Your estimators are already doing this, but it sounds like they are doing it in their heads. You just have to break the process down into smaller steps to allow the sizing estimates to be captured first. There is benefit to doing this.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Estimating Cost vs. Establishing the Project's Budget

What is the difference between Estimation of Project Cost (PP SP 1.4) and Establishing Project Budget (PP SP 2.1)?

Project Planning (PP) Specific Practice (SP) 1.4 addresses estimating the effort and cost for the project’s work products and tasks based on specified estimation rationale, models, and/or historical data. SP 2.1 takes this information for the individual work products and tasks, along with the major milestones identified in the project’s defined life cycle, any scheduling assumptions and constraints, and task predecessor/successor relationships to construct the project’s schedule and overall budget. Simply put, SP 1.4 concerns individual items in the project and SP 2.1 concerns the project as a whole.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Software Sizing

We are trying to achieve CMMI Maturity Level (ML) 3 in my company and we have decided to skip ML 2. So, now, one of our problems is related to software size estimation. We defined a proprietary method, based on Use Case Points and Function Points, but the practitioners are struggling with it. From your experience, what other methods have you seen or implemented in the companies with this same problem? Or, if a proprietary method was defined, what were the main aspects to take in account?

I would strongly urge you to forget the ML 3 Process Areas until you have mastered ML 2. There is a fundamental difference between how a ML 2 Project Manager approaches Project Planning (PP) and Project Monitoring and Control (PMC) vs. a ML 3 Project Manager. Estimation being one of the differences. Use Case Points and Functions Points are fairly sophisticated concepts and there are challenges with getting consistency in determining what each of these things are. I would recommend that you take a step back from the model and the projects and look at your historical project data. Use the actual effort, costs, etc. from previous projects to estimate a new project. Forget about Use Case Points and Function Points for now. Once you have mastered being able to use historical information to build an empirical estimation model, then it might make sense to add a layer of sophistication by considering Use Case Points or Function Points.

Another recommendation is let the Project Manager create the project estimates and then review them with the practitioners as a sanity check rather than ask the practitioners to create the estimates. Over time as the organization gains experience estimating projects etc., then it makes sense to involve the practitioners up front in the estimation process. You have to learn to crawl first with estimation before you can sprint with the big boys.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Estimation Rationale

I guess this seems little silly, but I needed more clarity on it. According to PP 1.2, attributes need to be estimated. Can anyone give me examples of attributes for project? I guess, when we say small, medium , large type projects they form the characteristics of project and not the attibutes. For sure, once we are clear with attributes we can surely ensure that our effort estimates (PP 1.4) are based on estimation rationale. How will project attibutes map up to estimation rationale?

What PP SP 1.2 is addressing is the Basis of Estimate for the project tasks, deliverables, etc. Basically this practice is looking for the sizing attributes that you use to ultimately determine your effort estimates. For a document, an attribute you might estimate is the number of pages for the document that have to be added, modified, or deleted. For hardware, it might be the number of drawings you have to maintain. For software, it might be the number of lines of code, function points, etc. Just using small, medium, or large doesn’t provide a Basis for Estimate. The Basis of Estimate is then your estimation model that is derived from the historical data from prior projects going through this same process. When you first begin to use the Basis of Estimate approach you may not have very good data, or no data at all. So the best you can do is make a guess as to the estimate (SWAG or engineering judgment). But over time as you collect the project data from each project, you will be able to refine this approach and have much better estimates. Then you take these sizing parameters or attributes and apply a productivity factor, again based on your historical data, to arrive at the effort and cost estimates in SP 1.4.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

A Question About Estimation

I'm a bit confused about what the CMMI requires for estimation. Is it valid for us to define our process as simple as guessing? Could we use something similar to Planning Poker or other similar agile techniques? The problem is that we've been told we need to have a quantitative and repeatable process for estimating in order to meet Project Planning (PP) SP 1.4 "Estimate the project effort and cost for the work products and tasks based on estimation rational." But in reality we don't have historical data and many of us think estimating is subjective anyway.

When you start implementing Maturity Level 2 there is no expectation that you have any historical data for estimating. The best you can do at that point is guess, SWAG, or use engineering judgment. One of the characteristics of being a Maturity Level 2 organization is that you are learning. You are learning what it means to estimate a project. You are learning how to improve your estimates so that over time you will be able to produce accurate estimates to build the foundation to allow the organization to move to Maturity Level 3. So, by the time you are ready for a Maturity Level 2 SCAMPI A appraisal, the expectation is that you have a repeatable estimation process (repeatability is at the core of Maturity Level 2) that is based on historical project data. Estimation is not difficult, it just takes a little bit of brain power and being systematic in your approach. One of the purposes of achieving Maturity Level 2 is moving from being subjective in estimation to being objective. If you have people that believe estimation is subjective, then I am afraid that you are still operating as a Maturity Level 1 organization.